Google has overtaken Anthropic in prediction-market odds for fielding the best AI model by the end of 2026, according to a TradingView report sourced from Seeking Alpha.

On Polymarket, Google now leads with a 43% probability versus 42% for Anthropic; Kalshi shows a nearly identical 41.9% to 41.3% split. OpenAI and Meta trail far behind at 6.5% and 2.9% respectively.

Anthropic held a commanding 70% to 80% lead for much of the year before its odds dropped sharply in early October. The same report notes Anthropic is targeting an IPO before Thanksgiving after considering an earlier fall debut, while OpenAI does not expect to go public until at least 2027.

Update October 12: on a separate Polymarket contract for the best model by the end of October, Google held a dominant 70% probability on Monday, ahead of Anthropic at 23%. Meta's odds rose from about 1.5% to 3.5% after its Muse Wonder launch, while OpenAI sat below 1% on that contract.